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At GGPredict we have built a system for pairwise team comparison, which gives us probabilities of a win between any two teams in professional CS:GO. It is a simple system, not accounting for maps being played or whether the match is taking place on LAN or online. It looks at team players' statistics and their recent performance taking into account opponents' strength and tournament level. We assign different weights to all the factors in the model and optimize it to achieve the best predictive results of a win in pairwise comparison.
Using our tool we have programmed possible scenarios for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Challengers Stage. Each team is randomly assigned a win or a loss according to our probabilities and is moved to the next games according to the tournament system, so the opponents of each team are equivalent to what would happen in the real thing. This way, we have "played out" the tournament 10,000 000 times using our pairwise win probability tool.
The drawbacks of our model are that it assigns the most weight to recent results, which overall is a good thing, but cannot capture, e.g. some teams might have not taken some matches seriously in preparation for the major. It also does not care for players' experience and their ability to cope with stress, which is an important factor during an event of such rank as the PGL Major. Lastly, as some teams compete only in their rather hermetic regions (e.g. Renegades or IHC) their results may be skewed, as the model considers their opponents as quite weak and has no opportunity to update that in comparison to other regions.
DISCLAIMER! GGPredict is a company that provides AI coaching and analytics for individual players. We are not a bookmaking or forecasting company. These results are in no way a betting recommendation. The research was made solely for the purpose of our data team's fun (and hopefully yours as well).