Last week we shared our predictions about the chances of advancing from Play-Ins and additionally, who has the biggest chance of winning IEM Cologne 2021.
Our previous predictions found out that Natus Vincere players were favorites to win the tournament. Ninjas in Pyjamas were ranked second, with an over 13% chance of winning the tournament. Unfortunately for their fans, device and friends lost both matches with CIS teams - Gambit and Virtus.Pro.
Virtus.Pro was the team that had the lowest chances of winning the IEM championship before the tournament. In the last 5 games, they won only one, versus K23. Their first game vs BIG was also a loss, but then they shocked everyone, eliminating Complexity, NiP, and taking revenge on BIG Clan.
This time, similar to the previous simulations, we have simulated play-offs over 100 000 times, to find out who has the biggest chances of winning the first lan tournament in over 1 and a half of the year.
Simulations indicate that the most likely course of events is a repeat of the final from IEM Katowice 2020. Facing NaVi would be a great opportunity to take revenge for G2. This pair has almost 30% of the meeting in the final bo5.
The only team from the Play-Ins - FaZe Clan, will have to face one of the best teams of the world right now - Gambit Esport. If the CIS team will win, they will have a chance to take revenge on NaVi after the loss in the final of StarLadder CIS RMR 2021.
How we have counted it?
Our AI, based on the statistics, rankings, and insights we have gathered has simulated the entire tournament 100 thousand times, taking into account different circumstances and possibilities. We don't claim that the favorite, NaVi - is the best team in the tournament, but it has a slightly easier ladder than the rest of the challengers.