Join our Discord
This week we analyzed Faceit matches with sole focus on their 2nd rounds of each half. We took into consideration over 300,000 rounds - only those in which the team losing the pistol round then spent over $1000 for equipment per player. So, what are the chances to win a force round after losing pistols? The results are in!
Losing the pistol round makes the team face the tricky decision: to play the eco round or go force, surprising the enemy team with better equipment. Their economy, in most cases, is pretty weak, since after losing a pistol round, they receive only $1900. The only exception is after terrorists succeeded in planting a bomb, which grants the whole team an extra $800, and $300 for the planter. Going force seems like a bolder, but obviously also costlier options - so is it really worth it?
It turns out, as nearly always, it depends which side are you on. Across all maps, we notice a similar pattern - Terrorists have a bigger win ratio than CT’s in the 2nd round of the half after losing pistols. The most probable reason for such disproportion is that terrorists' equipment is less expensive, with more opportunities to earn money. After planting a bomb, most of the T-Players can afford Galil-AR, armor with helmet and nades, while the best that CTs can buy is MP9 with armor. CT's force is then, by default, not as fraught and adds to the imbalance.
While the win ratio difference between CT and T sides are very similar on most of the maps, approaching 8%, there are two maps standing out - Anubis, increasing significantly the sides disparity, and Nuke, which levels out the disproportions. What are possible reasons?
In the current map pool, Nuke is the map with the most short-range duels - and that is where investing in upgraded pistols or SMGs as CT could make a serious difference. If you lose the pistol round as CT, Nuke is the map where you have the biggest chance of winning the force round.
On the other hand, we have Anubis - the newest map in the competitive map pool - where the win ratio difference between CTs and Terrorists is the biggest, amounting to quite staggering 14.60%. In comparison to other maps, Anubis has the most mid and long range duels, where SMGs are not so powerful, explaining why the equipment differences in going force do not translate as much into the chances of winning.
TL;DR: When does it make sense to go force after losing pistols? If you are T. Definitely if you are T on Anubis. Not so much if you are CT, unless you play Nuke. You're welcome.